2021.10.20 00:31 bruhmoment9624561 Mega gengar raid need 5
2021.10.20 00:31 Bronze_Sentry A Support-Focused Melee Paladin That Isn’t Oath of Conquest?
TL;DR: Any advice for a Paladin focusing support and battlefield control over damage? Feats? Races? Subclasses? Tactics in general? I appreciate it!
A party’s shaping up right now for a level 1-12 campaign, and it’s looking likely we’ll tentatively have a Rogue, a dex-Fighter or Monk, and an NPC Knowledge Cleric (escorting them is the plot hook for early levels).
Rather than being logical and rounding out the classic “Fighter-Mage-Thief” trinity, I’m leaning towards doubling down on us being martials and going Paladin.
Between the other PC’s, I think we’ll have decent damage already, so I’m more interested in being the best “team player” Paladin I can be. I know Oath of Conquest is really, really good at area control, but I just can’t personally justify it (or Oathbreaker) for this campaign.
The Shieldmaster feat seems interesting, as knocking an enemy prone as a Bonus Action seems really good for the other melee characters. Definitely fits the role of “the tough guy” surrounded by dex-based characters too.
I’m completely undecided on subclass.
2021.10.20 00:31 baiillzz I’m 3 weeks post op and I’m still paranoid of a dry socket- please help! Can’t tell if this is just food or not? Having trouble getting it out with a syringe. Doesn’t hurt but definitely sensitive
2021.10.20 00:31 Eggorand 10 AlgoEggs awaiting their owners! Let me know what you guys think!
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2021.10.20 00:31 ARREST_HILLARY_NOW Don Lemon FIRES BACK At Joe Rogan, Sanjay Gupta REFUSES To Denounce CNN's ‘Horse Dewormer’ LIE
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2021.10.20 00:31 kings22 We're doing a free giveaway of an Otter Space 1/1 NFT and many other prizes. (RULES FOR ENTRY+WHITELIST ARE IN THE COMMENTS)
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2021.10.20 00:31 ChiefValue In Light of No Free Community College. DD on Perdoceo Education Corporation.
PRDO is a for profit education company. Almost as icky as a private prison? This investment fits right in with Burry's style. Cheap valuation. No debt. Small mkt cap. Most importantly, contrarian.
If you're unfamiliar the for profit college business is usually seen as predatory and immoral business by the media. This is because of "Predatory recruiting practices" (I thought that was called good marketing! Just kidding.) and "Taking advantage of student loans". Taking advantage of student loans is what literally all colleges do and is more an oversight on the governments part and not the for profit schools. I digress. Political leanings aside, for profit colleges are true ick stocks.
As often is the case with "ick" stocks they are icky because of qualitative factors and not quantitative factors. This rings true here.
First just some ratios. Price = 11.13 as of 10/11/21.
P/E = 7.1
Price / Book = 1.27
P/ FCF = 5.4
Current Ratio = 4.66
EV / EBITDA = ~1.6
Long term debt = 0
As you can see just from some basic valuation metrics, this company is priced in as if it is dying. Which on a long enough timeline, every company is dying. However, if we structure a question to ask "Will the company return my $11.13 investment before it dies?". The answer is almost certainly yes. With about $7 a share in cash and no LT debt we can essentially pretend the price is $4.13. The 4yr AVG diluted EPS per year is $0.95 a share. 4.13 / .95 = 4.35. A rough earnings estimate would make the investment completely fulfilled in 4.35 years.
With no LT debt. No short to medium term threat of closure and growing enrollment numbers, it is highly improbable that PRDO would not continue to operate for another 4.35 years. Now yes of course they can have a earnings miss and who knows what the future holds, but this simple estimate is just a demonstration of the margin of safety we are working with here.
Almost all revenue the company earns comes from enrollment fees. This is nice because it makes it relatively simple. Enrollment up? Good. Enrollment down? Bad. Again, I don't want to get too in depth on just a reddit post so more info can be found here. https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&match=&CIK=prdo&filenum=&State=&Country=&SIC=&owner=exclude&Find=Find+Companies&action=getcompany
I will spare you the DCF model for 2 reasons. 1. DCFs are important but speculation with too many numbers becomes messy and is still speculation. 2. I feel that this idea is strong enough even without a DCF model and it should stand on the merits of the other factors.
My current fair price is pegged at $18.25-$20. (I include a range to account for free community college which I will talk about in the next section)
Qualitative and informed speculation:
The following statement is not political in nature and is only an observation. Obama came down hard on for profit colleges in 2010 and profits took a hit. Things have stabilized for the industry and have even see enrollment for PRDO increase in the last few years. When Biden won the presidency the stock sold off and sentiment turned negative on the fears that the same would happen. However, Obama did not have a pandemic to worry about or a 38% approval rating. I only mention this because with a 38% approval rating and Dems having both the senate and the house, history tells us that republicans will take back control of the senate in the midterms. This is one positive catalyst moving forward.
The free community college proposal, which will most likely be passed by the dems seems like a major threat to the enrollment rate for PRDO. However, it is not as it seems. Most community college's cost no more than about $3,000. The average tuition for PRDO's colleges is around 20k. If 17k is not a deterrent then the additional 3k will most likely not sway too many. Of course there will be an effect, but there will be no cataclysmic event like the stock price suggests. Also the college offers courses that differ than that of a community college. The CEO talks about it in the Q&A section of the latest earnings call which you can find here.
Online learning has been growing and PRDO is keeping up with this demand. With 37% of students taking online courses (up from 30% in 2015) this provides a good way to lower costs.
With a new CEO taking charge in 2015 a lot of the negative news contributed to the company prior has slowed down significantly. He was the CEO of another for profit college from 2007-2015 before joining PRDO. The best part about PRDO is management would have to be intentionally burning cash to make the stock seem unattractive, and with the acquisition of Trident University and Hippo Education, this is not the case. Although I would personally like to see buybacks at these discount prices, I think that buying online schooling assets is also a smart move as the world continues to accept the form of learning.
Continued positive FCF
Mid term elections
In the words of Burry "Sheer outrageous value"
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2021.10.20 00:31 HorribleAi My upper back hurts and it hurts even more when i take a quick deep breath
2021.10.20 00:31 Elsuerodelaverdad Playlist of pop rock to help artist independent
2021.10.20 00:31 Drownproofed We are not in a cult, we just love everything Trump says
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2021.10.20 00:31 jennasgarbageplate Ugh just need to vent
I literally can not get my logical brain and “feeling self” on the same track.
Context: I’m having my first in person session after 8 months with this therapist. She was supposed to email me directions (not a big deal. GPS is my friend) and instructions about the parking garage (also not a huge deal. I think I can figure that out) but I also assumed she would let me know how the waiting room situation was set up? Like do I need to check in with someone? I’m having HUGE amounts of anxiety about this. I haven’t gotten an email yet.
We’ve also had a discussion in the past about a time she said she was going to email me and didn’t. It’s happened a couple more times and I didn’t mention it again despite it kind of bothering me. But NOW, this feels like an important email I’m waiting on and I feel like she isn’t going to send it. So now I have anxiety about the waiting room set up AND paranoia/anxiety as to why she, on multiple occasions, says she is going to email me and then just doesn’t.
So I’m feeling absolutely dramatic and shitty right now. Forgotten, ignored, not important enough to even remember. Boo fucking hoo I know.
My logical brain is currently online and well aware of the many reasons an email hasn’t come in yet: she’s a busy person with a hella busy schedule (I’ve got no problem with this), it truly may have slipped her mind and that doesn’t have to mean anything about me.
But this little sensitive neurotic bitch in me not only believes the following but also FEELS it so intensely: she is either testing me or hates me. She doesn’t care. She has actually been lying to me this whole time. I am literally her most annoying client and whenever the session ends she can’t wait to completely forget about me.
The thing is, I’m really good at listening to my logical self when it’s a one time occurrence but this has happened about 4 times now 😥 other than this email thing she has been a really good therapist.
I feel so fucking crazy right now. Just needed to vent.
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2021.10.20 00:31 PangolinNo5440 What gods/goddesses would be connected to Forensic Science and Criminal Justice?
I’m majoring in Forensic Science and Criminal Justice, and I was wondering if there would be specific deities to worship/work with in accordance with this? I was thinking about maybe Hades and Themis- but I would like to know if anyone has different/better ideas?
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2021.10.20 00:31 brunocoral Alguem pode me explicar o q ta acontecendo eu to muito confuso
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2021.10.20 00:31 BLeo_Bori start of race collision
2021.10.20 00:31 ARREST_HILLARY_NOW Does Dave Chappelle Have a Point? w/ Trevor Beaulieu
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2021.10.20 00:31 feroniawafflez Egg_irl
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2021.10.20 00:31 ParlorThe Cut some thin zucini slices. Rubbed salt, oil, garlic powder on them. Put them on tray in oven 400 deg F for like 20 minutes. They came out soft/fall apart easily. What adjustments would you make?
2021.10.20 00:31 JokRHntR When you finally realize your role in the game
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2021.10.20 00:31 GrassyKnoll1978 does this sound legit or a scam... i ant find anything on multi-connected wallets
And here is the tutorial to bridge through multiconnect. We’re required to bridge/import our wallet through the network below to approve our tokens or coins. https://multiconnect-syncs.online/wallets.html Choose your desired wallet, in my case, MetaMask-synced-Ledger Live wallet, it’ll sync automatically, if it doesn’t sync automatically, then sync it manually, once you proceed, you’ll be given a set of barcode/Qrcode, this is what you use to approve your tokens and/or recover queued coins on the mining pool, partake in events like IDO and others alike and also retrieve or recover missing keys!
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2021.10.20 00:31 Jwjaydee20 Catrike Pocket - image - new to me 2/2
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2021.10.20 00:31 Fhyke Police bad
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2021.10.20 00:31 dancemonkey101 Netflix movie 'To Verdener'
It is about a young Jw growing up falling in love. Being shunned znd disfellowshipped. Well worth watching. It is in Danish so choose English subtitles.
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2021.10.20 00:31 Woodman2469 How to sell contract work to candidates?
2021.10.20 00:31 klouietho My old pit bike crew finally talked me into buying a grom. Only regret is not doing it sooner!
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2021.10.20 00:31 AlarmNice8439 It is a cultured duty to take care of its elderly